Crystal Ball Gazing - With Some Help

Trendspotting's one way of saying you're taking a sophisticated wild -ah-guess at what's going to happen in business. Having spent yesterday talking with some trusted industry contacts and observers, it looks like there are some trends emerging for 2010.

First, the black rifle craze (in .223/5.56 calibers) is, for all intents and purposes, over.

Although not many companies will admit it, there are few orders still outstanding for the rifles you couldn't find only a couple of months ago. That doesn't mean the market for the modern sporting rifle - the AR-style platform in the plethora of calibers and configurations available today - is over, but it does mean that hunters, competitors and other shooters are the people driving that category at this point.

What that means, however, is a slowdown in the single long gun category that seemed to sustain the industry most of 2009.

Other categories, as is normally the case, are continuing to sustain their sales levels. This time, it's the smaller, more concealable handguns, in calibers ranging from 32 and .380 through .45ACP.

As we announced Monday, Ruger has scaled down their SR9 polymer pistol to a compact (SR9c) model. Others, including Springfield Armory (XDM compact) are following suit.

Those aren't the only small guns coming to market - and media day - in only a couple of weeks. There are subcompact semiauto pistols and downsized revolvers on the way as well, following along for the market demand for .380-range concealed carry options.

And polymer will once again be seen in other platforms. As the composites prove themselves, other gun companies are downsizing already small handguns to make more potent calibers, including those hot plus-p loads, viable options for very lightweight concealed carry.

After this week's announcement that Freedom Group has added another company to the portfolio (Barnes Bullets), it should be obvious to almost everyone by now that Freedom isn't looking to make a quick-play into the firearms industry.

Adding Barnes to that product mix brings Freedom even closer to the ability to offer a self-contained catalog of firearms, ammunition and accessories. At this point, no word on what - if anything - will be said at SHOT Show regarding Freedom/Remington's adding handguns, but that seems to be only a matter of time. To their credit, it seems the management seems more concerned that products be right before they're introduced.

In the Law Enforcement sections of SHOT, most of the conversation seems aimed at speculation over what -if anything - is going to be coming down the military pipeline. With the Marine Corps having announced a new rifle - one that's not in the standard AR-configuration, no one's certain what - if anything - will be coming out as far as the other branches' changing desires in a combat rifle.

Only a couple of weeks ago, not much was expected in the way of innovation. In fact, some companies had apparently cancelled their SHOT reservations, leading to some speculation that the residual economic impact of 2009 was taking a toll on SHOT 2010.

Today, having seen and heard a lot about what's coming into the marketplace, I'm looking forward to SHOT.

Can't say much more, but you can look for a variety of offerings, including some innovative offerings from Taurus and the unveiling of what Benelli says is the lightest auto-loading shotgun in the world. And it will be interesting to see what dealers have to say about Beretta's A400 Xplor, their newest platform.

Personally, I'm getting excited about these - and lots of other products.

--Jim Shepherd